Making the Best of it- NHL Draft 2018

So I watched, along with other Blues fans,the hubbub and ceremony attendant to the NHL draft lottery hoping our team would fair better. The odds weren't in the Blues favor to begin with (what's new about that?) So the expectations weren't high that our team would move up into the top three. Carolina, with a little better shot at it, did so and will pick second. Those who watched learned that Buffalo, with the worst record in the NHL this season and the best odds of picking first, will do so on June 22nd in Dallas, The Blues, because of last year's Brayden Schenn trade with Philly, had the right to keep their pick in this year's draft if it were a top-ten pick. After the draft lottery, we know that they have the 14th pick, which will go to Philly as a result of the trade. Confusing?...Yes, but these are the deals that are made in modern sports team general management.

The good news for Blues fans is two-fold. 1) They still have a number-one pick as a result of the Paul Stastny trade with Winnipeg. And 2) There is hope in landing an impact player later in round one. That is based on simply looking at the history of the entry draft. Some of these 18-year-olds who are drafted turn out to be NHL stars, or at least very good players, and some don't. The scouts are paid to figure out which ones are "can't miss" prospects.

Depending on how Winnipeg finishes up in the playoffs, the pick the Blues get from the Jets will be somewhere between 23 and 31, if my calculations are correct. There is still a good chance of getting an outstanding player, if the scouts are on top of their game...and depending on what players are picked ahead of the Blues. Take the 2006 draft for instance. Not the most pleasant memory for Blues fans...but it is a good example of what to expect on draft day.

In '06 the Blues were picking #1 overall and chose the player everyone said was a can't miss superstar, defenseman Erik Johnson. We all know he didn't turn out to be what was expected of him...'nuff said on that. But later in the first round here are the players that the Blues could have had...Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Nicklas Backstrom, Phil Kessel, Bryan Little, Kyle Okposo...and some other name players. If you go down to the players picked after number 20...you still find names like Claude Giroux, Semyon Varlamov, Patrik Berglund and Nick Foligno.

Other examples of late first-round value:
2010 draft- Evgeny Kuznetsov #26 Washington
2011 draft- Rickard Rakell #30 Anaheim

To be sure, identifying the can't miss player is a lot easier if you're drafting at the top...but strong value can still be had later in round one. As Blues fans, we just have to hope that the scouts and front office either are very good at their job, are lucky this year, or both.