Pitch Count, Shmitch Count

I've played, followed, broadcast, p-a announced, and generally been a baseball junky since I can remember. A while back, don't really know when it started, the number of pitches that a pitcher makes in a game became important. The broadcasts follow it closely. The manager and pitching coach totally tuned in to it so they know when they can expect their pitcher to run out of gas. Even the pitcher's agent began using the number of pitches thrown as ammo against the team. "Hey my guy threw 120 pitches last night! What are you trying to do ruin his career?"

Well, if you've been around more than 40 years like me, you know that there was a time when the number of pitches thrown was either not important, or ignored. The number of guys a pitcher got out, and whether he won the game carried a little more importance than today's "quality start".

With that in mind, I've asked this question of some people that I respect who are close to the game and haven't gotten what I feel is a satisfactory explanation. So, I'll ask anyone who's reading this to respond to help out my feeble little brain.

Why don't they keep track of ALL the throws that a pitcher makes on a game night?

On any given night when a man pitches a baseball game he uses his pitching arm many more times than just the official offerings he makes to batters. Think about it. Before the game he needs to warm up. Let's, conservatively, say that he throws 30 pitches to get loose. Then, he goes to the mound before each inning and will usually throw another, at least 8, warm-up pitches. Then there are the pick-off moves to first base...or whatever other base...let's say he throws 10 of those during a seven-inning outing. That's another 96 uses of his arm during seven innings that aren't being counted...at least officially.

But, isn't keeping track of pitches all about how much wear and tear the guy is putting on his arm? If you're keeping track of wear and tear, shouldn't those other throws count too? I can't understand why not. I get it that warm-up pitches might be a little less stressful to the arm than a real "heat-of-the-battle" pitch in a game. But, to me, a pick-off throw should count for two pitches when it comes to arm damage. A pick-off throw is a totally foreign motion to his normal routine. A right-handed pitcher turns to first base and throws across his body. Exactly what you're not supposed to do to eliminate wear and tear during the regular pitching motion.

So, I guess if I were running a TV broadcast, or a pitching coach, I'd have two categories for pitches. A) Batter pitches and B) Non-batter pitches. Because when it comes right down to it, the number of pitches thrown to the batter is only a part of the real total.
For instance, after a 7-inning outing Chris Carpenter (who just had Tommy John surgery because of arm damage) might have this total.

Batter pitches: 102
Non-batter pitches: 96

If that's not important, then why bother keeping track of anything?

Ay or Uh

-One local TV anchor has me bugged. This person...no point naming names...starts every story that starts with the preposition "a"...by pronouncing it "ay". For instance...

"Ay St. Louis man was arrested today". or..."Ay construction crew closed Highway 40"...or "Ay Anheuser-Busch official"....Yes, I've even heard him/her use "ay" when word two starts with a vowel. Baffling.

Always "Ay"...never the more informal and conversational "uh". Is that some ridiculous way of making the story sound more like some sort of official TV presentation in this person's mind? As far as I can tell...this guy/gal is the only local anchor with this particular technique. I assume it's a technique. It just sounds so ridiculous to me. If he/her would stop "presenting" and start communicating on a personal level by reading the news as if he/she were sitting in our living room with us, maybe he/she would have better ratings. Hey buddy/lady, we want people to communicate with us...not at us. Hopefully, if you should happen to read this, you know who you are. If not, TiVo your own newscast sometime and get a clue.

One of my mentors...the great Bob Hardy...always said you should read the news as if you are telling each story to a group of friends...not as though you are making a speech at a political convention.

-The secret is finally out. Scott Rolen is once again dealing with pain in his bum shoulder. You had to figure that because of the way his bat was dragging through the strike zone. One has to wonder if he'll ever be able to return to his pre-injury productivity.

-Why in heaven's name would one find the need to promote dog fighting on one's own property when one has all the money and fame that comes with being the starting quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons? One must be really, really stupid.

-I give the David and Victoria Beckham frenzy about 3 months. But I must say, she's pretty cute.

HOLY CRAP!! Am I excited!

-The promoter has signed DAUGHTRY to perform at the August 7th concert at GCS Ballpark in Sauget.

Son Ian...(the Chris Daughtry look-alike) called me a little while ago thinking I had probably heard the news. He said..."Just checkin' to see if you're having a heart attack." I said..."Don't think so....about what?" Then he said he read about Daughtry being added on Grizzlies staffer Brent Pownall's MySpace page. Wow!!

Originally, the concert was supposed to be Third Eye Blind, Counting Crows and Collective Soul. Then Third Eye Blind was dropped from the show for some reason. Grizzlies GM Tony Funderburg (pic) and the promoter have been looking for a third act to add to the show to perk up ticket sales. And today... Wham-o! Now tickets will be hard to get. They'll pack the place. Daughtry has been on the road most of the late spring and summer. Quite a few of their shows recently have been in conjunction with Nickelback and Staind. But, wherever Chris and his new group have been...has been pretty much sold out.

I think Ian is even going to drive up from Kentucky for this one. We'll have to get him and Chris in front of a camera somehow. If that happens, I'll make sure plenty of pics get posted here.

Noggin Notes

-Things that currently have my interest---

-This whole Albert Pujols/Tony LaRussa thing from the All-Star game has me...as a died-in-the-wool conspiracy theorist...intrigued. It was so obvious that Tony should have sent his guy Albert to the plate with a chance to hit a walk-off, game-winning home run on Tuesday night, that one has to think that something that's not being said had to be involved. I wonder if LaRussa doesn't have some hidden agenda to start paving his way out of St. Louis after the season. There are so many rumors swirling about Walt Jocketty and LaRussa not "re-upping" or taking other jobs after this season, that you wonder if Tony is managing with that in the back of his head. Not playing Albert, a man from his own team, on one of baseball's biggest stages seems to be unthinkable....unless you are trying to annoy fans into calling for your head. I don't know...just me conspiracy theorizing.

-I read in the paper this morning...(that's that thing that some of us over-50 folks still use to get our news)...that teen sex and teenage pregnancy rates are way down. Compared to numbers from 1991, it's a dramatic downturn in the numbers. Maybe teaching kids about condoms, acknowledging that they are capable of making smart decisions, and understanding that they will try to have sex one way or another is the way to go after all. Keeping anyone in the dark these days...especially about sex... seems to be stupid and futile. Maybe we're starting to get it on this front.

-I wrote in my last post about how the Gateway Grizzlies have the best record in professional baseball. Believe it or not, that probably will have a downside to it before long. Because Phil Warren's team is kicking so much tail, they will likely be in the spotlight of scouts and lose some players to affiliated teams before long. The Grizzlies play in the independent Frontier League which has funneled a number of players back into the minor-league systems of big league clubs. In fact, the Grizzlies currently have two former pitchers toiling in the affiliated minor leagues...Scott Patterson is with a Yankees AA team...and Christian Castorri is with an A-level team in the Pirates organization. We who enjoy these kids with the Grizzlies have to remember that their real dream is to make it to the majors... and some have. i.e. Jason Simontachi, Josh Kinney(pic)..and many more.

-There was a Major League Soccer game on ESPN2 last night. Because there was very little else on the satellite, I tried to watch the game for a little while. Sorry soccer fans, I fell asleep. I sure hope David Beckham brings something to the sport that I'm not seeing. I used to broadcast play-by-play of soccer when I was in college. But, I have to work way too hard at being a fan of pro soccer.

-Do not take this in any way to be non-supportive of our troops...but, what is our country's leadership accomplishing in Iraq? These are real people, who want to live just like everyone else, that are dying in bunches over there. Someone needs to explain to me how what we're doing is changing the world for the better. I'd be on board with the war, if it seemed like there was a clearly-identified enemy, and sound strategy to defeat it. It might be I'm missing something, but it just seems like our people are over there to make sure the battleground isn't in our own back yard. That just puts them in harms way without a winning strategy. Can you say Viet Nam?

-The Blues will be good this coming year. Barring key injuries, I expect them to return to being a playoff team. But the really exciting Blues teams will take the ice in this century's second decade...if the current ownership maintains the course.

I Had No Idea

...that so many people would identify with our plight after I wrote about the passing of our dear old girl Fergie. Of course, dog-lover Mike Anderson of stlmedia.net mentioned my sadness and linked to this blog which sent many non-regular visitors here. Mike recently had a similar experience with his beloved Lucy.

As a result of the more public nature of that particular blog entry, I received several e-mails and phonecalls from people I had never met but who, nevertheless, attempted to console Barb and me. To those who did, and to those who might have identified and sympathized, I can never thank you enough. There are many more good-hearted people in this world than you might suspect based on the news of the day.

-At the All-Star break the Cardinals are an enigma. One could envision the World Champions folding up completely in the second half. But, it doesn't take much imagination to believe they could also still win their division with a return to regular health of some key players like Carpenter, Eckstein and Edmonds. Should they get any positive contribution from Mark Mulder, things could get even better. One thing I still expect is a much different look to this club next year. All the rumors about Walt Jockety and Tony LaRussa heading elsewhere may only be the tip of the iceberg.

-Every where I go people ask me how I feel about the coming hockey season after the Paul Kariya signing. I won't go so far as to say the Blues will be in the Stanley Cup finals like Manny Legace did on the radio the other day. But, I do think they'll make the playoffs and be competitive in them. That's more than we've been able to say with a straight face in some time.

-The Gateway Grizzlies are continuing to amaze me, and everyone else. They have just completed a sweep (and not just a sweep...but a thumping) of the Windy City Thunderbolts who, up until the Grizzlies came to visit them in Chicago-land, had the best record in professional baseball....at any level. Now...without doing the proper research...I assume that title falls to rookie manager Phil Warren's outstanding Sauget-based bunch. At the Frontier League All-Star break, the Grizzlies have a record of 36-10. A .783 winning percentage...Wow! Seven Grizzlies players will be in the all-star game in Florence, KY Wednesday night. Then the, now humbled, Windy City team will visit GCS Ballpark Friday night to start the second half of the season. I'll bet they're looking forward to that.

-I haven't heard anybody say anything to me about attending, or enjoying, Fair St. Louis. Maybe I'm not hanging with the right crowd to get that kind of feedback...but it seems to be a much smaller blip on the entertainment screen these days. I think our area could do so much better. I'd like to see a music festival like the old Mississippi River Festival be re-established to bring in big-name acts like it did back in the day. I'd work to make that happen...but would need someone with money to have the same vision. I even know of a great place where a venue could be established to handle it. If someone is interested in talking about it from a financial standpoint, please give me a call.

Tribute to a Dear Friend

-There are many things in this world that I should be concerned about this day, but there is only one that I can think about....the passing of our dear old Springer Spaniel Fergie. Barb and I took "Fergs" to our longtime vet Dr. Mike Harres for the last time just after 9 o'clock this morning.

The only consolation we have is in the belief that she's better off now than she was yesterday. We knew the time was approaching where we would have to do something...she was losing control of herself and had been deaf for some time. Recently she had begun to lose her eyesight as well. But yesterday...oh yesterday...was hard for an animal lover to take.

We were watching the last episode of Band of Brothers in our home theater when Barb noticed something was not right. I looked down to see our dear family member in the midst of a seizure. We thought the end had come then. But, to our amazement, she recovered and seemed OK for the rest of the day. Try as we might, we couldn't connect with Dr. Harres on the Independence holiday. Then, during the night Fergie had another seizure. So, we pretty much knew that this morning's visit to the animal hospital was not going to be pleasant.

After discussing the situation with "the Doc", we all agreed that her condition was not going to improve. So we made the toughtest of decisions, and were with her as she drew her last breath.

If you've had a wonderful pet like Fergie, you understand how we feel now. We will remember the romping puppy we brought home in 1993. We will look to the places in the house she used to make herself comfortable, to find her not there. We'll remember the joy she took in helping us open presents on birthdays and on Christmas. The joyful face she displayed upon receiving a belly rub, back scratch, or Milk Bone will only be available in our memories. The smiling, happy greetings upon our returning home will be no more. Barb is preparing a special place in her garden for the ashes. I have an empty place in my heart.

Our pets bring so much joy to our lives...and yet so much pain when they leave. But leave they must.

Rest well Fergie. You are loved.

Kaaaaaaa-Chuk!!!

-Well...he got a little more than the original offer....and I'll be able to make my favorite player-name announcement again for another couple of years. Blues goal scored by number 7....Keith Tkaaaaaaaaa-chuuuuuuuuk. Woo Hoo!

-I also very much like the pick-up of Paul Kariya. He's one of those "player's players" that I think we will get to like very much in St. Louis. With the young guys coming on...and the veterans that we have...along with Andy Murray from the start of the season....it should be fun being a hockey fan again.

-Philadelphia spent a pot of money on a bunch of guys...and so did the Rangers...but I still like the build-from-within approach the Blues are taking. It's going to take a little longer to become a Stanley Cup contender...but once we get there...it should be something we can enjoy for several years.

Tkachuk..Deal or No Deal?

-Hockey thoughts first...

-I could not be more happy for Al MacInnis. The man from Nova Scotia will join the immortals in the Hockey Hall of Fame in November. Everyone knows he belongs. The sport is lucky to have someone that brings unending class and grace to it by his association with it. I'm proud to work in the same building as the Stan Musial of St. Louis hockey.

-What kind of deal will Keith Tkachuk settle for with the Blues. Seems to me that 3.5 million for two seasons is a pretty good chunk for a 35-year-old who wants to keep his family in St. Louis. No, he likely won't be able to win a Stanley Cup in those two years, but is that really Walt's priority? I guess we'll find out in the next few days.

Family/business updates...

-A bit of a tease to the upcoming music product from son Ian's rock group...Chassis... now available on-line...click here

-Recently graduated son Stewart gets his first paid acting gig after college. Woo Hoo!! And it's a good starting place. The Chicago Shakespeare Theatre at Navy Pier. More info about Stew's first pro show here.

-Our ad agency...and my studio...are re-locating to new digs. We're taking up residence in a very nice space on the lower level of my friend Roger Wigginton's thriving clothing business....Don Rodgers Ltd. We're already receiving mail at 6727 West Main, Suite 1, Belleville, IL 62223. Put it in your rolodex or contact info.

Miscellaneous...

-It seems the last place in this country where anyone could get away with playing the race card is in the entertainment industry. But, that didn't stop fired Grey's Anatomy actor Isaiah Washington from doing just that. Click here for details. Wow...either that production company has a problem...or Mr. Washington has a larger one.

-Speaking of race relations...that topic ate up a good portion of the time in the latest debate among the Democratic presidential candidates. I would expect that to continue all the way to election day because of the presence of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. He will not be able to avoid the constant scrutiny of his heritage...and she will hail herself as a champion of the downtrodden throughout whatever campaign either might have against the Republican candidate.

-Friend and colleague Mike Anderson rightly points out in a comment to my latest post that many of our age lost lives in southeast Asia in the 60's and 70's. I hope my comments didn't come off as overlooking Viet Nam-era veterans when writing about the bravery of the WWII era fighting man. My thoughts were more a reaction to the viewing of Band of Brothers than a comparative of the relative characters of the generations. Admiration and gratitude runs deep here for all who serve and have served.

-Paris Hilton...what's all the fuss?

-Two car bombs found in London. Three men being sought in the Birmingham area...a center of radical Islamic unrest in Britain. Religious differences may eventually be our planet's undoing. Or is our species smarter than that?

-The one Cardinals player who frustrates me the most is Scott Rolen. He has an enormous contract. He once was a player worthy of the big money. But he seems to be throwing a sure-shot Hall-of-Fame career down the outhouse opening. Always hurt. Rarely producing when he's not. Frustrating...very frustrating. But, I'll bet I'm not half as annoyed as Walt Jockety and Tony LaRussa.

-I was happy to provide the voiceover for an entry into this year's St. Louis portion of the 48-Hour Film Project. I was on-camera for colleague Tim Snider's winning entry..When Bags Attack.. last year. This year he produced an audience favorite...but not the big prize winner. If you'd like to take a look at this year's entry...Doer of Good...(you'll need a high-speed connection)...click here

-I'm still a big Chris Daughtry fan...and I'm very far from the only one. His post-American Idol career has been nothing short of amazing. Check out the latest news by clicking here.

Ketchup Time

-Sorry to see that the Blues are severing ties with captain Dallas Drake. Not because I think it's a bad player move...but because he's so universally loved and respected. Dally has taken much more physical abuse playing the game than most guys. And in the past year or so it seems to me his game has shown it. He didn't deliver the devastating hits with nearly as much regularity. And his overall game was just not there. He'll be missed...but I understand that youth is the key word around the Blues these days. Hard to say what I think about the Blues picks in the entry draft. At this point you just have to put your faith in the management and scouting people and believe they got the right guys. We'll know in a couple of years.

-Youngest son Stewart graduated with high honors from the Theatre School at DePaul on the 16th of this month. Now, the real world of trying to catch lightning in a bottle as a professional actor begins. He's already got a few gigs in the works. It's tough...but we believe Stew's got a real shot at great things. He's already great in our eyes...just a matter of catching "the break".

-Oldest son Ian is now based in Bowling Green, KY and is trying something equally as challenging. He's put together a rock band and will be spending the next few months writing songs that the group hopes to make popular through recordings and live performances. September is the target month for the group...Chassis...to begin live performances and have a CD ready to go commercial. Click the link above for the group's My Space page. No doctors or lawyers in my family. No sir. Not complainin'...just observin'. I'm happy that these young fellas feel empowered to pursue their creative dreams.

-If you haven't been to a Grizzlies game this year, you're missing it. New manager Phil Warren --> has put together a virtual "Murderer's Row" lineup...and they're tearing it up. In Sunday's game they hit back-to-back-to-back homers for the first time in franchise history. And just about everyone in the lineup is capable of "jacking one" in any at-bat. The pitching has been much better than what we saw in recent years...particularly the relief-pitching which has been outstanding. If you go to Grizzlies games just to have a good time, that's fine. But, there's also a really good baseball team playing at GCS Ballpark this year too.

-The Cardinals are tough to watch most nights...especially after treating us to a World Series championship...but because they play in a division with no outstanding teams, they are still very much in the hunt. When Carpenter comes back...and possibly Mulder...they'll have as good a chance as anyone to make the post-season. That's if they don't fall out of contention before then.

-On a recent weekend, seven revelers died while enjoying way too much beverage and boating at the Lake of the Ozarks. If we could only get our enemies to take a leisurely boat ride at Missouri's "Hoosier heaven" with a couple of cases of iced-up beer we wouldn't have to go to war.

-Who won the NBA championship? I missed that.

-For Father's Day, I was presented with an outstanding present by my family....the boxed set of the HBO mini-series, Band of Brothers. We've watched the first five episodes so far. It is still astounding to me how these extraordinary men of the World War II era went willingly (most volunteered) to war knowing they likely weren't coming back. Their commitment to the country and their families is almost beyond comprehension. The story of the paratroopers of Easy Company of the 101st Airborne Division (produced by Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks) should be required viewing in all high schools. How unbelievably lucky most of us are to have had fathers and grandfathers who grabbed a weapon and fought for our freedom...just because it was the right thing to do. Too bad most in our country seem to have no clue about that.

Finally Some Time

-Been very busy with business and the start of the Grizzlies new season lately. Not much time for the blog. So, we'll touch a bunch of bases in this post.

-Sorry to read that Josh Hancock's estate, executed by his father, is suing Mike Shannon's Restaurant, the towing company, and the guy who's car broke down, the night of the late player's fatal accident. Sorry, because I happen to think Josh's memory will be destroyed by any court procedings that may result. And sorry because I think pursuing this kind of thing is an example of what's wrong with our legal system in this country. There are so many predatory attorneys out there looking for exposure, and willing to take on pay-if-you-win cases, that people in Mr. Hancock's position are willing to risk a dead son's reputation. When someone in this country has the seeds to fight for legislation that makes those who sue pay court costs if they lose, we won't see nearly as many of these ridiculous suits. I'm actually surprized they're not suing Josh's cell-phone company for tempting him to text while driving. When will people begin taking responsiblity for their own actions? When there are financial consequences that prevent the predator lawyers from getting involved.

-The Grizzlies will be a much better baseball team this year, based on the first two games of the season. The line-up has plenty of punch. The pitching appears to be solid. And the defense looks to be very good as well. GCS Ballpark will be a fun place to be, as always, no matter what the success of the team. But, new manager Phil Warren appears to have assembled a very strong club. Should be fun to watch.

-I'm not counting the Cardinals out yet. The craftiness of Walt Jockety, and the savvy of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan lead me to believe that they will become more and more competitive as the season goes on. And, when they get a healthy Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder back for the rotation in a few months. Well, stranger things have happened.

-The Blues are in the process of gearing up for the new season both on and off the ice. The draft happens in a few weeks where they are positioned to make a big splash. They will likely sign a high-profile free-agent. And, off the ice, they are attempting to bring in new marketing executives that will be assigned the task of making the fan experience better and the sales effort stronger. The Dave Checketts regime is gearing up for big things. We might have to give it a year or two for playoff success. But the fan experience, already very strong, will be even better right away.

-American Idol was not nearly as interesting this year, and totally predictable. I will give the producers credit though for not doing background video pieces on all of the contestants as they have in years past. The reason: Jordin Sparks would have been unfairly handicapped and/or benefitted if they had. Sparks, the eventual winner, is the product of a mixed-race marriage. Sadly, there are many out there who would frown on that to the point of denying her votes. At the same time, her dad is Phillipi Sparks the one-time pro football player. She would unduly benefit from many who would vote for her, and him, out of hero worship. They downplayed the heritage of Nikko Smith (Ozzie's kid) a few years back for the same, obvious, reason. It may not always turn out the way we like it, but the producers do try to present a level playing field.

Beginning of the End?

-What we're witnessing with the Cardinals early this season appears to me to be a harbinger of larger changes on the horizon.

The Tony LaRussa/Walt Jockety era of the Cards is nearing an end. Insiders, and outsiders, are getting indications...and making them public...that Cardinals "out-front" owner Bill DeWitt is preparing the organization for life after Walt and Tony. That, as much as anything, has created a stagnant attitude in the front office, and on the field, and may be at least partially responsible for the pathetic looking club that has been fielded so far this season.

Fox Sports baseball guru Ken Rosenthal, among others, has written about DeWitt's grooming of Jeff Luhnow as a successor to Jockety, and the negative influence it has cast over the operation. Luhnow currently holds the title of Vice President for Scouting and Player Development, but it's apparently no secret in baseball circles that DeWitt has Luhnow ready to take over should Jockety leave, or be fired. And, since Jockety and LaRussa seem to be a package deal, Tony is probably understandably disturbed at the unhappy situation of his boss, and buddy, Walt. And, of course, these things have a way of infecting attitude all around.

One has to wonder if DeWitt is unhappy with the long-term, high-dollar contracts that Jockety has entered into with players like Scott Rolen and Chris Carpenter. At one time both deals seemed like bargains. But now that Rolen seems unable to hit anywhere close to the level of his pre-shoulder injury days, and Carpenter's arm surgery has his career in some doubt, neither deal seems "club friendly" anymore. Then you have the multi-million dollar deal bestowed upon now, very aged-looking Jim Edmonds...and you might see how an owner would start questioning his GM.

To position Luhnow as a possible successor to Jockety is a fairly understandable move on ownership's part. You never want anyone in your company to appear irreplaceable. On the other hand, Jockety's success level with limited resources...comparatively speaking... over the years should put him way above the fray. Having someone hovering in the background ready to take your job shouldn't be something with which Walt has to be concerned. And, if it actually is a distraction that makes its way into player performance, then DeWitt needs to do something to make things right. It wasn't all that long ago that Cardinals games weren't sold-out every time the team took the field. And much more baseball like we've seen in '07 will bring back the "bad ol' days".

Idol Prediction

You'll notice, if you visit here even semi-regularly, that I have resisted the temptation to write about American Idol this season. It was at this point in the season last year that I was so absorbed in it that I could barely think about anything else. I hate to admit that....but it was true. It was also at this point last year that I was totally shocked by the ouster of Chris Daughtry from the competition. He, of course, as most predicted, has gone on to great success despite the disappointment.

So, I will make this promise. This year, because I don't have anywhere near the same interest level, I will predict how the remaining contestants will finish. And that will be the last time I subject anyone to my "Idol thoughts" on this blog. Incidentally, this year I think America is getting it right...with the exception of the ultra-long and excruciating stay of Sanjaya. His prolonged presence on the show bears out my previous writings about Idol not being a talent contest...but more a popularity contest.

So, let's rank the remaining contestants according to talent. But then let's also predict how they will finish...talent aside.

Singing Talent
1. Melinda Doolittle
2. Jordin Sparks
3. Lakisha Jones
4. Blake Lewis

Performer
1. Jordin Sparks
2. Blake Lewis
3. Melinda Doolittle
4. Lakisha Jones

Order of finsh
1. Jordin Sparks
2. Melinda Doolittle
3. Blake Lewis
4. Lakisha Jones

Reasoning
Lakisha has an amazing voice...but often enough she misses on the interpretation of her song. She seems to overpower the song frequently and "overuses" her voice in spots where she needs to back off and communicate the lyric. She is also the most difficult of the bunch to warm up to. For that reason I think she's next to go home.

Blake has been rewarded for his likeability and his willingness to take a risk with songs. His beat box interpretations have been amazing. However, he cannot outperform Jordin or Melinda. He's the strongest male in a weak year for the guys. Being a guy may even get him to the final week of the show.

Melinda has been consistently the best singer...just about every week I've been able to watch. She is a pro. But, she doesn't come through the camera to the TV audience...and she doesn't have the stage presence of either Jordin or Blake. Remember at this point it gets to be more of a personality contest...and while Melinda is likeable...she is not charismatic.

17-year-old Jordin Sparks will be this year's American Idol because she has the total package. She's a great singer with outstanding interpretation of the material. Her You'll Never Walk Alone a few weeks back was tantamount to Katherine McPhee's Over the Rainbow of last year's show. The camera loves Jordin. It's easy to see how she...even at her young age...could move right into professional performing.


So...There's my prediction. By the end of the month we'll see if I'm anywhere in the ballpark.